Serie A · resolved market
Cagliari Calcio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cadb7d11ef99eebc63e1e2ad6e8c1ca55ad41c136f8d422103182db73104c3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 39c | 18,706$7,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,363.06 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 15,117$9,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,416.27 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 32c | 6,250$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 61c | 6,000$3,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,360 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 4,347$2,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.85 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 68c | 3,299$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.52 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 62c | 991.06$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.51 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 12c | 789.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71da…bc9ebacked Over | 40c | 602.5$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 35c | 555.11$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.15 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 61c | 505.38$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.1 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 64c | 491.44$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.6 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…699bbacked Over | 40c | 462.38$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -53%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 10c | 461.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 70c | 448.74$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.12 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…c2f1backed Over | 12c | 404.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 328 | 54.3%178 W · 150 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 393 | 54.2%213 W · 180 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Under | 59c | 286.85$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.22 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 71c | 227.64$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 63c | 188.74$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 63c | 188.74$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 62c | 176.52$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Over | 39c | 172.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Under | 60c | 162.7$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 70c | 158.18$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373b…1107backed Over | 41c | 144.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 142$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 61c | 140.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 40c | 118.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Under | 61c | 111.84$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 41c | 96.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 61c | 85.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 310 | 51.6%160 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…5403backed Under | 62c | 66.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Under | 62c | 58.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Under | 60c | 56.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 38c | 52.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked Under | 61c | 47.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 29c | 45.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed Under | 60c | 39.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Under | 78c | 29.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1be5…9d53backed Over | 39c | 27.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 66c | 26.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed Under | 64c | 24.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 62c | 19.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 113 | 60.2%68 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Under | 60c | 17.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed Under | 68c | 17.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cagliari Calcio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5this page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)US Cremonese won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-2.5)US Cremonese won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.