MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebdf57ceb930b9b1fa2eec7c7232425a69d894b8de78d40a340dd53786aed00f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,213 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 3,327$2,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041.75 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 1,123$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.3 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 815.76$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.59 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 780.07$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.14 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 491.03$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.71 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 480.62$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.24 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Seattle Mariners | 61c | 322.84$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 17c | 292.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 253.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.83 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 234.35$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 72c | 227.72$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 206$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.97 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 204.08$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.41 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 192$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.59 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 182$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.08 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 178.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Seattle Mariners | 59c | 178.77$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.31 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 178$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.12 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 178$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 166.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Seattle Mariners | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 142.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.72 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 118$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 103.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 97.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 83.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 81.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…f48bbacked Seattle Mariners | 57c | 71.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Seattle Mariners | 59c | 68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 66.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Seattle Mariners | 61c | 61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 54.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 40.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 39.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 37.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 33.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 32.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0893…c760backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.