Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec0a92aed7441d98c6eb90b2392b1b092df302c9cfc2b9bdcf8f1a6ddf6efdc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 1,907$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.88 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 1,222$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 47c | 500$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.89 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 481.62$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.52 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 48c | 415.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.19 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 368.58$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 53c | 355.06$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.18 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 47c | 240.1$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.1 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 48c | 218.57$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.37 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 213.25$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 37c | 199.78$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 175.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 165.84$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 140.47$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 55c | 126.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 56c | 120.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 58c | 119.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 106.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45f3…216cbacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 97.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 42c | 76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 57c | 75.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 75.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 63.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 48c | 52.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 35c | 50.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 24c | 50.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa874…c532backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 53c | 49.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 43c | 48.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 47.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 45.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 55c | 43.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 55c | 43.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 71c | 43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…c918backed No | 50c | 41.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 26c | 40.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 29c | 40.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 51c | 37.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 55c | 37.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 33.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 30.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 51c | 30.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 59c | 27.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 46c | 25.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…83ccbacked Yes | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 20.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 52c | 20.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.