WNBA · resolved market
Storm vs Mercury
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec7dda26dfc29e6c00e242c9d3fe210c59cebb64ee56a31f5a4cd9f27746c99f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stormof Storm, Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Storm | 67c | 2,780$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.5 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mercury | 33c | 1,950$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.5 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Storm | 67c | 1,585$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.06 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Mercury | 30c | 1,434$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.76 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Mercury | 33c | 972.81$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.03 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Storm | 68c | 862.99$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.16 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Mercury | 30c | 659$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.73 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Storm | 67c | 643.06$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.37 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Storm | 69c | 635.08$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Mercury | 36c | 525.06$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Storm | 78c | 425$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Mercury | 28c | 396$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…e26cbacked Mercury | 46c | 358.66$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.29 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mercury | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mercury | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Storm | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Storm | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Mercury | 42c | 144.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Mercury | 33c | 108.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Mercury | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Mercury | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Mercury | 15c | 85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 13cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Mercury | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Mercury | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…0c0cbacked Mercury | 32c | 72.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Storm | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Storm | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Storm | 67c | 61.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Storm | 71c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Mercury | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x462a…8b5cbacked Mercury | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Storm | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x10ae…cb95backed Storm | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Storm | 71c | 47.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Storm | 68c | 28.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Storm | 69c | 19.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.