MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Atlanta Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecbb9a7ba1b6db4c5ef602c0605f0b1ac9acf2ce946d0bed63b486af39ba33ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 2,940$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.71 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 2,461$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.33 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Atlanta Braves | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Atlanta Braves | 52c | 1,561$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.35 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Minnesota Twins | 48c | 1,345$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.6 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Atlanta Braves | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Atlanta Braves | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Atlanta Braves | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Atlanta Braves | 74c | 963.48$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.11 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7490…f3efbacked Minnesota Twins | 27c | 900$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 617.67$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Atlanta Braves | 52c | 550$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 521$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Minnesota Twins | 47c | 304.66$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.19 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Atlanta Braves | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Atlanta Braves | 52c | 240.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Atlanta Braves | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Minnesota Twins | 46c | 185.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Minnesota Twins | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 98.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Atlanta Braves | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Atlanta Braves | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Minnesota Twins | 47c | 55.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Atlanta Braves | 51c | 46.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 46.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Atlanta Braves | 54c | 38.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Atlanta Braves | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.