MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecbdfdabd5d3390678acbac65cc2c41e7a16de144722cc1091af822ab93a81c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Houston Astros, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bf9…b6d3backed Houston Astros | 51c | 15,228$7,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,764.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 9,000$4,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,590 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 7,853$3,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,959.01 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Houston Astros | 50c | 1,556$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.51 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 1,507$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.58 | 210 | 40%84 W · 126 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros | 30c | 1,464$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.31 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 1,160$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.06 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Houston Astros | 48c | 1,009$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.4 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 40c | 1,003$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 438.48$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.01 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…2de6backed Houston Astros | 51c | 373.68$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.58 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Houston Astros | 49c | 261.13$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.95 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 50c | 237.56$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 199$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 171.8$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 155.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Houston Astros | 50c | 111.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Houston Astros | 51c | 101.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed Houston Astros | 51c | 89.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…f673backed Houston Astros | 51c | 88.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Houston Astros | 51c | 88.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 203 | 51.7%105 W · 98 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd82…4068backed Houston Astros | 51c | 82.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…4db6backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 57.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 57.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 47.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…880abacked Houston Astros | 52c | 37.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Houston Astros | 51c | 37.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…8333backed Houston Astros | 43c | 30.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Houston Astros | 48c | 26.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 26.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 26.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Colorado Rockies | 65c | 20.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Houston Astros | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked Houston Astros | 51c | 19.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Colorado Rockies | 62c | 17.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.