TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
SE Palmeirasof SE Palmeiras, EC Vitória
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,425
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,587

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,425 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed SE Palmeiras8c3,192$255 inWon+$2,936.792,28134.3%782 W · 1,499 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked SE Palmeiras53c1,098$585 inWon+$512.76666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed EC Vitória51c974.51$492 inLost-$492.358,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed SE Palmeiras8c300$24 inWon+$27619711.2%22 W · 175 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe868…7c4fbacked SE Palmeiras29c167.4$48 inWon+$119.025944.1%26 W · 33 L+6.3wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked SE Palmeiras50c113.66$56 inWon+$57.489645.4%407 W · 489 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed EC Vitória47c104.48$49 inLost-$48.7955250.2%277 W · 275 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x866c…19c0backed SE Palmeiras51c58.81$30 inWon+$28.817454.1%40 W · 34 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed EC Vitória24c56.67$14 inLost-$13.67549.3%37 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked SE Palmeiras70c52.78$37 inWon+$15.918446.2%85 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked SE Palmeiras60c52$31 inWon+$20.6989846.1%414 W · 484 L-11.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed EC Vitória60c50$30 inLost-$29.7535246.9%165 W · 187 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed EC Vitória47c39.54$18 inLost-$18.4760156.2%338 W · 263 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed EC Vitória47c39.54$18 inLost-$18.4795155.8%531 W · 420 L+31.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed EC Vitória49c34.33$17 inLost-$16.8269453.5%371 W · 323 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.