TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
SE Palmeirasof SE Palmeiras, EC Vitória
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,997
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,419

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,997 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed SE Palmeiras59c8,872$5,227 inWon+$3,645.072,28134.3%782 W · 1,499 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed EC Vitória39c6,888$2,708 inLost-$2,708.278,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked SE Palmeiras55c2,383$1,310 inWon+$1,073.35666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed EC Vitória78c2,171$1,698 inLost-$1,697.732,51439%980 W · 1,534 L-32.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked SE Palmeiras23c1,347$310 inWon+$1,037.1949136.3%178 W · 313 L-2.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed EC Vitória77c954.38$735 inLost-$734.871,29042.8%552 W · 738 L-2.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed EC Vitória5c909.49$45 inLost-$45.4721044.3%93 W · 117 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf844…ee3cbacked EC Vitória22c867$191 inLost-$190.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+96.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked EC Vitória77c765.54$590 inLost-$589.5616160.9%98 W · 63 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed SE Palmeiras55c499.97$275 inWon+$224.994040%16 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa50…27d6backed EC Vitória4c475$19 inLost-$1930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed EC Vitória78c380$296 inLost-$296.42,33551.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L+2.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed EC Vitória35c256.07$90 inLost-$89.7395155.8%531 W · 420 L+31.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed EC Vitória34c249.04$84 inLost-$84.2560156.2%338 W · 263 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7391…5375backed SE Palmeiras23c217.39$50 inWon+$167.394337.2%16 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed SE Palmeiras20c200$40 inWon+$16040242%169 W · 233 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe904…44e9backed EC Vitória77c157.44$121 inLost-$121.2318247.8%87 W · 95 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed EC Vitória78c127.49$99 inLost-$99.4455250.2%277 W · 275 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed EC Vitória9c111.2$10 inLost-$10.0533152.6%174 W · 157 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed SE Palmeiras17c105.86$18 inWon+$87.873,74938.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L-33.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c31…5380backed SE Palmeiras22c104.55$23 inWon+$81.5511457%65 W · 49 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bc5…e563backed SE Palmeiras75c78.45$59 inWon+$19.9311039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed EC Vitória79c76.48$60 inLost-$60.0550656.3%285 W · 221 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed EC Vitória78c64.08$50 inLost-$49.9864633.1%214 W · 432 L-24.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed EC Vitória77c59.78$46 inLost-$46.0340451.2%207 W · 197 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked SE Palmeiras23c58.84$14 inWon+$45.3116234.6%56 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed EC Vitória79c58.11$46 inLost-$45.769453.5%371 W · 323 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked SE Palmeiras22c51.31$11 inWon+$40.0315554.2%84 W · 71 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked EC Vitória47c50$24 inLost-$23.535046.3%162 W · 188 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5f…f7aebacked EC Vitória46c43.48$20 inLost-$204656.5%26 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed EC Vitória49c41.36$20 inLost-$20.3463061.3%386 W · 244 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed EC Vitória77c33$25 inLost-$25.412,61154.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed EC Vitória78c20.5$16 inLost-$15.9911848.3%57 W · 61 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29d4…5d18backed EC Vitória78c15.36$12 inLost-$11.9815364.1%98 W · 55 L+14.4wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+18.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked EC Vitória78c14$11 inLost-$10.9272058.8%423 W · 297 L+29.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.