TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

EC Vitória vs. SE Palmeiras: 1st Half O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,161
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,069

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,161 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb54c…500abacked Over64c1,406$900 inWon+$506.252147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17e2…d472backed Under36c1,251$450 inLost-$4503435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under36c711.82$256 inLost-$256.261,28253.7%689 W · 593 L+5.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over64c670.5$429 inWon+$241.381,94451.3%998 W · 946 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Over64c622.1$397 inWon+$225.3215045.3%68 W · 82 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8152…5b51backed Under37c205.46$77 inLost-$76.712850%64 W · 64 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under60c125.16$75 inLost-$758,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffac…d469backed Over56c120$67 inWon+$53.210055%55 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under42c102.95$43 inLost-$43.033,74938.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L-33.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under42c76.5$32 inLost-$32.132,51439%980 W · 1,534 L-32.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Over49c71.42$35 inWon+$36.422536%9 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d1c…3347backed Over29c68.96$20 inWon+$48.9621538.1%82 W · 133 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Over64c64.97$42 inWon+$23.3915554.2%84 W · 71 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under28c52.93$15 inLost-$14.989846.1%414 W · 484 L-11.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Over67c48.35$32 inWon+$15.964763.8%30 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under33c48.35$16 inLost-$15.9642462.3%264 W · 160 L+24.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Over64c40$26 inWon+$14.49051.1%46 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Over63c30$19 inWon+$11.123253%123 W · 109 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.