Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xece7a31f092c2dd3477f37ab20818e4f808a8c9b2027fc905b98d10e40eabb8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 1c | 4,409$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 3c | 2,055$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 3c | 1,579$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 5c | 1,466$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 1c | 1,387$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…9dd7backed Yes | 1c | 1,275$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa174…f408backed Yes | 8c | 1,140$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 1,108$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 6c | 916.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 4c | 647.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 3c | 560.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf649…5bb6backed Yes | 9c | 315.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 9c | 232.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 7c | 225.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 14c | 213.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 6c | 201.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 11c | 163.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…34d8backed Yes | 8c | 155.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 13c | 113.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…983fbacked Yes | 14c | 109.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6e…929dbacked Yes | 12c | 94.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…0062backed Yes | 17c | 87.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 86.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…0209backed Yes | 14c | 75.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.