TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on February 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,442

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,406 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f88…da69backed Yes2c9,936$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.2417949.2%88 W · 91 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes1c4,272$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4117135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes12c2,607$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.1928718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed Yes9c1,300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11713453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes13c1,300$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17296313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes18c838.22$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.3895933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6756…99abbacked Yes17c810.93$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.426526.2%17 W · 48 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes41c663.5$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.4131341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes13c661.59$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.271,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1672…03f1backed Yes23c656.55$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.895635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes58c638.54$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.3534651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd736…c78abacked Yes16c619.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes39c618.23$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.6366543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf649…5bb6backed Yes28c508.11$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.832725.9%7 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-41.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes22c470.62$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7918727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c437.47$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes7c437.4$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.119429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes7c425.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0318041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes28c402$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.217950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes13c384.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7860523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed No79c382.9$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.2715759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed8e…07f8backed No79c338.07$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.05862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes7c334.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes7c333$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3135232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes8c304.6$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.147,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes24c251.09$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.928337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes18c230.78$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.916036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes30c222.38$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.621,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes19c216.69$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8924710.5%26 W · 221 L+1.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes14c214.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.838840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes21c212.24$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.451,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes14c209.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6233726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes22c207.45$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.147229.2%21 W · 51 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No76c194.93$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7852245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes14c189$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5520144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb881…20a1backed Yes53c187.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9706…2e00backed Yes63c179.87$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+101.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes9c179.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.212,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes63c156.42$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1726339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes37c135.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5033058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes61c133.57$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.937323.3%17 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa6e…929dbacked Yes33c131.09$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.39922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes29c125$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.257823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0943…ca76backed Yes50c119.51$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.041952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ba…0209backed Yes14c115.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.19425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes17c113.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6236819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa301…b4efbacked No71c108.72$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.865360.4%32 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes55c106.26$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9511359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes21c103.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2740935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No44c100.03$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.931649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4122…6c07backed Yes72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.524216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6405…7d19backed No31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.88438.1%32 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1726…1ad4backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.556753.7%36 W · 31 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fdf…a680backed No55c99.83$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.84429.5%13 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes25c99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.612846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes50c93.38$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.871,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ebb…9ed8backed No77c93.16$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.711376.9%10 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed No76c87.32$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8186226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes13c87.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.731,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b4…3c7ebacked Yes33c81.21$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-71.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No77c79.58$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.231567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes20c76.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9c0…ef5dbacked Yes13c76.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked Yes69c74.16$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1119461.9%120 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes62c66.4$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.327079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No31c65.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9634219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a67…5773backed Yes22c65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.051145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes33c59.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7532548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2e…5cb9backed Yes19c56.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112152.4%11 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec15…3942backed Yes24c53.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.84032.5%13 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes50c51.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.624850%24 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103826.3%10 W · 28 L-6.1wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-53.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No53c44.44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0944553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d2b…815abacked No76c42.43$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3710264.7%66 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4826…79dabacked No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.43,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No80c39$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.83,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce4a…f704backed Yes60c35.85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes49c34.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0361659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No79c31.39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5924966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9231…b267backed No44c31.24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.553063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc51…a9c1backed No76c30.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes73c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.919047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ec4…e2b6backed Yes52c28.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0da…4162backed Yes78c28.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9214953.7%80 W · 69 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad72…d5bfbacked Yes65c27.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.073652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4b9…7e5ebacked Yes72c27.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No78c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5535843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b7…ceb2backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes44c24.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.441,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ed9…c127backed Yes61c23.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.495056%28 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe70a…6de8backed No78c22.36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.88742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf375…98d0backed No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.31457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5888…1109backed No76c19.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.742360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+67.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x555a…931abacked Yes69c16.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick67cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.