TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,444
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,094

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,444 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f88…da69backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017949.2%88 W · 91 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad88…662dbacked Yes1c5,901$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.17911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-70%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc52c…282fbacked Yes1c5,188$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked Yes3c3,533$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1094833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…7a8dbacked No33c2,750$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6974…81b2backed No39c2,550$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,556.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ed…1b6dbacked No39c2,500$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5251100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa034…4bc5backed Yes1c2,021$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes13c2,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25024010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d8b…b3adbacked Yes67c1,500$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ea…c670backed Yes61c1,350$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf80c…de41backed Yes61c1,300$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcef8…c29bbacked Yes67c1,250$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeef…5de7backed Yes61c1,200$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0117…2a31backed Yes61c1,200$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes60c1,168$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.99429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x042a…b153backed Yes3c1,105$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.05616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-74.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes2c1,046$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2612230.3%37 W · 85 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes65c776.06$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.2234651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes27c700$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1871,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes9c601.72$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7466543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes52c589.41$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.9216036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6756…99abbacked Yes29c541.96$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.136526.2%17 W · 48 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes24c519.44$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.7454143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes46c490.46$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.7238840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed No57c433.72$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.2818727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed Yes62c411.12$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.5613453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No69c380.95$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.2231649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes64c373.76$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.7131341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes14c371.45$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.047323.3%17 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes68c367.05$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25011646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes54c359$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.434,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe14e…b7f1backed No46c336.87$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.19650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes13c336.26$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0326339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes41c319.4$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.637832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed No43c300$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17228718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No52c299.71$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.373,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes58c273.24$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.71,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6396…aff3backed No45c252$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.873826.3%10 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-61.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes42c250.85$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes58c242$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5733139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4165…da31backed Yes50c239.32$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes12c230$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.226236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c226.93$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes41c223.64$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3960523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No71c193.03$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9852245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes43c188.86$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.927,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cee…507abacked Yes61c183.17$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.384465.9%29 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-7.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes13c179.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6334219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No36c169.49$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.311,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd442…f946backed Yes65c161.66$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed Yes54c160.04$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7710542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes34c155.82$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5311436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa428…40c6backed Yes70c148.97$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.21361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb881…20a1backed Yes70c143.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes21c141.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302010%2 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-69.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1fdf…a680backed No46c130.88$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.364429.5%13 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes12c130$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b1…fa5fbacked No58c126.7$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.247229.2%21 W · 51 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b30…583fbacked Yes68c124.47$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec15…3942backed Yes30c124.24$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.274032.5%13 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f7f…122cbacked No39c118.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+155.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes32c115.7$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.61,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes33c110.2$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.841,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No46c109.82$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.332652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200b…722ebacked Yes26c104.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.351838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed8e…07f8backed No79c104.29$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.28862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x383c…d1b8backed Yes66c100.74$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.751250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6405…7d19backed No31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.88438.1%32 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x357d…0897backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x536d…3152backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7012073.3%88 W · 32 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed No38c98.67$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4416465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes66c98.14$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3331567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x468f…a738backed Yes45c95.65$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.072536%9 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed No33c91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.531,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda63…b031backed Yes55c90.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50137.7%1 W · 12 L-4.2wins-0.33per pick40cpaid-61.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No48c89.68$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5591967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe70a…6de8backed Yes67c88.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.57742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x911f…5ed0backed Yes60c83.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd8b9…3296backed No42c82.92$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4511129.7%33 W · 78 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd0…5ccdbacked Yes63c73.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.39540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd47f…b9a3backed Yes41c73.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4914…722ebacked Yes56c71.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405429.6%16 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No37c70.89$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.534618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No40c70.8$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4851762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0943…ca76backed Yes45c67.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.081952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x989a…b73fbacked Yes33c66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8218164.1%116 W · 65 L+29.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xad72…d5bfbacked Yes23c65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.053652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No36c63.9$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.873,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…2a57backed No32c63.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.041030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes30c60.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.288,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfff3…983fbacked Yes60c60.14$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.235432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes51c54.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbb78…adbbbacked Yes55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa596…8d92backed Yes55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-72.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.