Tennis · resolved market
Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecf44f636b274df80350a96d0ffee5669b9a648061df55486bb3fb86249e405a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f3c…2f57backed Over | 45c | 4,000$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.38 | 307 | 40.7%125 W · 182 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 55c | 3,549$1,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602.34 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…ff17backed Under | 59c | 3,014$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.12 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 56c | 1,742$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.81 | 239 | 45.6%109 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Over | 41c | 1,433$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.66 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Under | 5c | 1,334$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,267.25 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +13.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Over | 44c | 1,100$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over | 48c | 1,052$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 55c | 970.22$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.75 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 55c | 901.33$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.43 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff8…5fd6backed Under | 56c | 699.99$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…0a3fbacked Over | 45c | 665.16$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Over | 44c | 547.08$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.72 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Over | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 747 | 43.6%326 W · 421 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under | 5c | 467.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.03 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Over | 44c | 449.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 589 | 31.1%183 W · 406 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Over | 46c | 437.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 271 | 51.3%139 W · 132 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Under | 56c | 304.18$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.84 | 335 | 58.5%196 W · 139 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…4ed7backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 55c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Over | 45c | 176.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 219 | 49.3%108 W · 111 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 55c | 167$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 157 | 45.9%72 W · 85 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Over | 45c | 166.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under | 55c | 139.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3e…5d9dbacked Over | 45c | 117.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +73%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 45c | 76.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 45c | 56.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…f208backed Over | 45c | 43.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 44c | 38.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 193 | 46.6%90 W · 103 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…bdb8backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 63.8%97 W · 55 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 60c | 23.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi OsakaAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs OsakaSabalenka won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.