Tennis · resolved market
Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf12ac7a567be2e05847b0cf944d17adf24ac56bd902d144c75bf9a8787feb066
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Over | 72c | 964.01$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.54 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Over | 73c | 928.39$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.69 | 191 | 56%107 W · 84 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 27c | 660$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 342 | 42.4%145 W · 197 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 28c | 498.37$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.54 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under | 29c | 324$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 7,129 | 39.7%2,832 W · 4,297 L | -14.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 28c | 223.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 7,774 | 47.8%3,715 W · 4,059 L | +40.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…c629backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 27c | 66.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 4,090 | 39.8%1,628 W · 2,462 L | +95.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…22e9backed Over | 71c | 51.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 33c | 48.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,179 | 37%807 W · 1,372 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 31c | 34.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5this page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi OsakaAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs OsakaSabalenka won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.