Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Osaka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a674aced44f3945e02c62790d0c4aa0944ee2e8a437a91ef21bdad0a4a29f99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Osaka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe733…8ed4backed Sabalenka | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.98 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70bc…4e16backed Osaka | 29c | 1,671$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…6eacbacked Sabalenka | 56c | 1,300$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Osaka | 41c | 1,050$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.95 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sabalenka | 71c | 986$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.94 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9c…b3e0backed Sabalenka | 69c | 790.27$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.63 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Osaka | 43c | 670$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.96 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Osaka | 47c | 573.77$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.67 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…a84abacked Sabalenka | 58c | 570$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.8 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Sabalenka | 59c | 501.81$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.71 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Sabalenka | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 239 | 45.6%109 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Osaka | 47c | 498.48$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.29 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Sabalenka | 59c | 484.47$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.9 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Osaka | 41c | 430.9$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.58 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…86b1backed Osaka | 47c | 415.11$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Sabalenka | 57c | 385.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.99 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…1595backed Osaka | 27c | 356.04$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Osaka | 42c | 345.26$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.52 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Osaka | 46c | 283.66$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.82 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…1619backed Sabalenka | 73c | 275$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Sabalenka | 73c | 273.73$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…7f98backed Osaka | 46c | 244$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.24 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Osaka | 35c | 233.76$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6766…0db2backed Osaka | 44c | 224.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Osaka | 38c | 214.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Osaka | 32c | 214.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a2…8613backed Sabalenka | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fa…d8c4backed Osaka | 36c | 180.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 139 | 28.1%39 W · 100 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Osaka | 38c | 169.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3191…e118backed Osaka | 38c | 160.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Osaka | 46c | 150.02$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Osaka | 28c | 139.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 184 | 30.4%56 W · 128 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7366…d1aabacked Sabalenka | 68c | 139.11$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…f792backed Sabalenka | 70c | 131.94$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Osaka | 43c | 121.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Osaka | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed Osaka | 28c | 116.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Osaka | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Sabalenka | 69c | 94.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Osaka | 38c | 89.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Sabalenka | 62c | 89.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sabalenka | 72c | 81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b2…50cabacked Osaka | 46c | 75.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…28c3backed Sabalenka | 66c | 75.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 167 | 61.1%102 W · 65 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Sabalenka | 72c | 74.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Sabalenka | 72c | 70.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Sabalenka | 72c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Sabalenka | 71c | 61.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e52…cbb9backed Sabalenka | 47c | 60.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…76bdbacked Sabalenka | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Osaka | 29c | 53.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Osaka | 62c | 52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf38…1020backed Sabalenka | 60c | 51.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Sabalenka | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 157 | 45.9%72 W · 85 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Sabalenka | 73c | 49.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Osaka | 37c | 40.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fad…7667backed Osaka | 40c | 40.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecb…e058backed Sabalenka | 62c | 38.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…b31bbacked Osaka | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…f4ccbacked Sabalenka | 65c | 30.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…25e8backed Sabalenka | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Sabalenka | 56c | 26.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Osakathis page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi OsakaAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.