Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d1c19ea21cea28358f0a9696f300015f70e41a9b14ab2fbff875fdc9252dea9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Osaka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Osaka | 43c | 18,830$8,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,096.78 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…afcbbacked Osaka | 42c | 13,109$5,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,495.63 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Sabalenka | 57c | 10,000$5,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,292.67 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea32…8870backed Sabalenka | 58c | 9,000$5,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,780 | 101 | 59.4%60 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…1862backed Sabalenka | 58c | 6,057$3,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,543.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Osaka | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Sabalenka | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Sabalenka | 48c | 4,502$2,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,351.06 | 308 | 27.6%85 W · 223 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479b…cdb1backed Osaka | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Osaka | 43c | 3,642$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Osaka | 43c | 1,200$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Osaka | 60c | 1,196$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.49 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfac1…3176backed Sabalenka | 59c | 1,017$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.95 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sabalenka | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff8…5fd6backed Sabalenka | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.92 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b43…0f61backed Sabalenka | 58c | 870.44$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Sabalenka | 57c | 865$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.95 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Sabalenka | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Sabalenka | 57c | 842$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.06 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Sabalenka | 57c | 817.97$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.73 | 239 | 45.6%109 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d723backed Sabalenka | 57c | 800$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344 | 191 | 46.6%89 W · 102 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Sabalenka | 48c | 799.99$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.99 | 132 | 37.9%50 W · 82 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Sabalenka | 70c | 736.7$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.69 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Sabalenka | 57c | 724.87$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.7 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4e…c4a0backed Osaka | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Sabalenka | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Osaka | 35c | 500$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.2 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Sabalenka | 57c | 439.54$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Sabalenka | 74c | 435.17$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Sabalenka | 75c | 422.4$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Sabalenka | 75c | 383.53$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Sabalenka | 57c | 343.8$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.84 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Osaka | 55c | 327.04$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Sabalenka | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Osaka | 50c | 242.75$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.68 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Sabalenka | 57c | 240.35$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Osaka | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 589 | 31.1%183 W · 406 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Osaka | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked Osaka | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Osaka | 43c | 220.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Sabalenka | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 240 | 55%132 W · 108 L | -15.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Osaka | 34c | 195.65$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Osaka | 42c | 179.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Osaka | 43c | 174.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 580 | 45.9%266 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…f792backed Sabalenka | 75c | 173.33$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…3378backed Sabalenka | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa1…36f6backed Sabalenka | 69c | 162$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Sabalenka | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Osaka | 56c | 122.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Sabalenka | 51c | 117.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Osaka | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 418 | 46.2%193 W · 225 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Osaka | 43c | 116$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Osaka | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Sabalenka | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bb…7d97backed Osaka | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Sabalenka | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x055f…b363backed Sabalenka | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Sabalenka | 58c | 85.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Osaka | 60c | 81.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Osaka | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 158 | 37.3%59 W · 99 L | -19.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Sabalenka | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Sabalenka | 59c | 66.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Sabalenka | 58c | 62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…551abacked Osaka | 43c | 61.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Osaka | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Osaka | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Osaka | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed Osaka | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…f36ebacked Osaka | 43c | 39.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Osaka | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…fb71backed Sabalenka | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda59…6630backed Sabalenka | 58c | 33.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Osaka | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Sabalenka | 58c | 23.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)this page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi OsakaAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs OsakaSabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.