Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed1d9ba20ce9498653a3acf7a98ec3fa05e2bd9c18257ca8cd3793cd512985c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 31c | 998.09$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.82 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked No | 77c | 886.66$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.49 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 3c | 444.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 34c | 309.64$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.24 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 256.63$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 66c | 237.43$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 69c | 221.93$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 34c | 208.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 31c | 204.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 183.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 181.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 30c | 172.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 158.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 32c | 149.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23f…af02backed Yes | 26c | 145$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 37c | 130.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 129.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 19c | 114.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 111.71$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 21c | 104.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 99.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 67c | 94.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 28c | 93.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 32c | 88.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…6a2fbacked Yes | 25c | 86.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 69c | 83.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 18c | 78.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 18c | 71.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 30c | 62.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 30c | 59.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…16a2backed Yes | 33c | 59.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 65c | 57.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd0…9f9abacked Yes | 37c | 55.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 69c | 54.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x171c…942dbacked No | 68c | 52.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 26c | 51.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 34c | 48.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes | 35c | 47.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 76c | 45.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 32c | 45.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 66c | 44.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 70c | 42.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 69c | 42.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 26c | 41.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 67c | 40.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked No | 79c | 39.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 36c | 39.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 38c | 38.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 69c | 33.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 65c | 31.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 29.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 67c | 28.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8009…3e9abacked No | 70c | 27.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 25.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7970…3450backed No | 68c | 24.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…fa02backed No | 68c | 24.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 22.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 73c | 21.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…4c72backed No | 69c | 20.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4709…6366backed No | 68c | 19.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…014fbacked No | 70c | 19.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 69c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ece…2178backed No | 69c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked No | 68c | 16.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 73c | 16.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 71c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 15.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 73°F or below on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.