MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed340348765b35c765af5733a7a90eb78ecaf83f2907caed6030f13880493553
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf009…43d0backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 1,261$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 1,127$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.15 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 28c | 863$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 33c | 396.84$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 383.19$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 229.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…0d90backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 171.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 138.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 115.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 93.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 87.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…ad43backed San Francisco Giants | 24c | 63.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Francisco Giants | 18c | 61.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 60.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed San Francisco Giants | 29c | 55.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 54.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked San Francisco Giants | 35c | 42.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 35.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 33.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…0114backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 29.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 29.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked San Francisco Giants | 41c | 27.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 21.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…96a8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 212 | 45.8%97 W · 115 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.