MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83379c5af0beeb967be180d0552fbd79baf543a6561e06eee5cf5e8316c8a27b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 64c | 1,327$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.64 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 1,009$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 32c | 682.91$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 61c | 661$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.4 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 22c | 548.68$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.05 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 69c | 451.1$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.2 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 39c | 370.33$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.51 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 35c | 320.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.34 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 60c | 298.91$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.35 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Over | 14c | 268$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 39c | 239.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 23c | 222.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 59c | 203.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 137.79$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 67c | 133$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Under | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 41c | 101.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 61c | 87.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 63c | 85.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 17c | 83.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 35c | 81.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 18c | 81.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 32c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 37c | 71.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 39c | 54.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 28c | 44.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 32c | 42.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 58c | 35.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 76c | 33.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 75c | 28.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Under | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 80c | 21.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 80c | 19.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 80c | 19.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Under | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 69c | 16.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.