Cricket · resolved market
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier B: Belgium vs Romania
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed5748542fcd619c2ca08cfa21613172beb1e4edbf15e98d4a5ffa6b31a0c6d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Romaniaof Belgium, Romania
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c8d…30a5backed Romania | 66c | 4,154$2,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.92 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…d3b2backed Romania | 55c | 2,533$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.68 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Belgium | 27c | 2,454$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.74 | 423 | 44.2%187 W · 236 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Belgium | 53c | 1,559$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.51 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked Belgium | 52c | 1,544$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Romania | 63c | 1,011$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.21 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Belgium | 25c | 771.48$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.49 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Belgium | 20c | 646.91$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.3 | 569 | 37.1%211 W · 358 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Belgium | 33c | 615.28$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.43 | 636 | 46.4%295 W · 341 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Belgium | 59c | 530.5$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.8 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Romania | 77c | 495.15$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.44 | 230 | 33.9%78 W · 152 L | -18.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Romania | 72c | 488.72$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.28 | 220 | 36.4%80 W · 140 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Romania | 66c | 449.33$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.72 | 199 | 50.8%101 W · 98 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Romania | 64c | 443.81$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.54 | 319 | 40.1%128 W · 191 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Belgium | 16c | 439.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…3241backed Belgium | 25c | 401.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…ad17backed Romania | 48c | 356.31$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.32 | 324 | 15.7%51 W · 273 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Romania | 67c | 341.23$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.95 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Romania | 71c | 318.1$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.58 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…6b98backed Romania | 48c | 307.36$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.83 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Romania | 41c | 248.62$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.69 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Romania | 68c | 237.4$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 654 | 51.1%334 W · 320 L | +26.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cd…820fbacked Romania | 49c | 236$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.4 | 187 | 29.4%55 W · 132 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Romania | 74c | 221$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 249 | 40.6%101 W · 148 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked Belgium | 49c | 211.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…2282backed Belgium | 58c | 201.72$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Belgium | 54c | 185.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Belgium | 56c | 162$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Romania | 42c | 160.68$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.83 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Romania | 67c | 158$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 159 | 35.2%56 W · 103 L | -11.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Belgium | 56c | 153$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Romania | 70c | 151.67$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 763 | 51.6%394 W · 369 L | +29.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Romania | 76c | 151.08$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 159 | 36.5%58 W · 101 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…fa14backed Romania | 33c | 148.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Romania | 72c | 133.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 310 | 50%155 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…492cbacked Romania | 76c | 130.71$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Belgium | 45c | 122$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Romania | 55c | 112.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 679 | 31.4%213 W · 466 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Belgium | 23c | 108.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 419 | 47.5%199 W · 220 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Romania | 54c | 100.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 187 | 57.8%108 W · 79 L | +18.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…19e2backed Romania | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…b953backed Romania | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9559…4781backed Belgium | 25c | 97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7719backed Belgium | 17c | 95.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…d48cbacked Romania | 47c | 81.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Romania | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a57…913fbacked Belgium | 65c | 79.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 290 | 51.7%150 W · 140 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Belgium | 26c | 78.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…620ebacked Belgium | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Romania | 42c | 70.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Romania | 56c | 64.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Belgium | 58c | 62.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 174 | 59.8%104 W · 70 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed Romania | 37c | 62.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…4c15backed Belgium | 61c | 62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa162…69b1backed Romania | 49c | 61.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff1…4766backed Belgium | 59c | 60.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f67…8ddfbacked Romania | 63c | 60.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Romania | 69c | 58.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 505 | 47.5%240 W · 265 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Belgium | 58c | 58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Romania | 46c | 57.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Belgium | 54c | 51.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Romania | 73c | 50.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 271 | 41.3%112 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Belgium | 56c | 49.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Romania | 55c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Belgium | 60c | 44.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Romania | 65c | 41.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2f…5388backed Romania | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…b726backed Belgium | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…39f5backed Belgium | 54c | 37.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Belgium | 35c | 35.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06b7…e26bbacked Belgium | 32c | 33.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0c…1833backed Belgium | 51c | 30.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Romania | 42c | 30.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Romania | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 209 | 36.8%77 W · 132 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f94…1b53backed Romania | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f3…6c94backed Romania | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 360 | 47.5%171 W · 189 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…bfdfbacked Romania | 74c | 25.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…441fbacked Belgium | 45c | 24.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…96b3backed Belgium | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…8353backed Romania | 43c | 23.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…8ebebacked Belgium | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe28…3c60backed Belgium | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 198 | 43.4%86 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8e…1d33backed Belgium | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 270 | 54.4%147 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.