Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed5753084bad794eb69a5c70d4298d74e673c0691a2733cff0297655f6477d8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 79c | 506.75$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 67c | 430.39$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.16 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…a5ccbacked Yes | 36c | 300$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 51c | 198.61$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.86 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed Yes | 44c | 188.16$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 120$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 28c | 119.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 117.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 37c | 109.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 46c | 109.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 10c | 108.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 104.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 27c | 100.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 87.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 44c | 79.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 22c | 76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 57c | 74.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 62c | 65.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…cd3ebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 48c | 43.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed Yes | 44c | 39.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 37.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 37.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…d7f7backed Yes | 46c | 34.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 49c | 30.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 65c | 17.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 20?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 20?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 20?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.