Dota2 · resolved market
Will Team Liquid win DreamLeague 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed91ee73d413935a1bf6d0997ab485b152289636a086335434e6b1759da02999
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 53c | 300.4$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.3 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…eedcbacked No | 72c | 280.91$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 34c | 173.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 8c | 160.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 46c | 127.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Yes | 54c | 122.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 218 | 51.8%113 W · 105 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Yes | 47c | 107.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…15c0backed No | 78c | 103$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x568b…776cbacked Yes | 24c | 94.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 33c | 92.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd84d…cc32backed No | 52c | 69.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…1ff9backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2760…ef06backed Yes | 23c | 58.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 23c | 56.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Yes | 54c | 55.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 35c | 54.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 53.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…3255backed Yes | 26c | 51.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…33debacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d8…00f3backed Yes | 42c | 42.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 41.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 39c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…3f4abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed No | 58c | 17.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Team Liquid win DreamLeague 28?this page
- Will Aurora win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will MOUZ win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will OG win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will PARIVISION win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will Perú Rejects win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will Team Falcons win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will Team Spirit win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will Team Yandex win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will Tundra Esports win DreamLeague 28?Yes won
- Will Xtreme Gaming win DreamLeague 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.