Dota2 · resolved market
Will Tundra Esports win DreamLeague 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f0ad06e2be667f1e3b005b187461568fbca6df96edbbb3bfffd75c5917e01eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8232…d12fbacked Yes | 66c | 1,351$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.91 | 280 | 62.9%176 W · 104 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e3a6backed No | 36c | 797.08$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.95 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Yes | 69c | 642$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.12 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cc…72afbacked No | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 28c | 381.91$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 32c | 300$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.32 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed No | 70c | 297.08$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed No | 36c | 249.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…eedcbacked Yes | 46c | 236.51$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.39 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 19c | 197.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.33 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 32c | 176.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3435…1913backed No | 68c | 166.1$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cb…bbdfbacked No | 61c | 157.26$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…c849backed No | 41c | 153.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 156 | 42.9%67 W · 89 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 149.45$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 13c | 136.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.46 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Yes | 43c | 104.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…b637backed No | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 29c | 99.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 69c | 69.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 73c | 65.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…1ff9backed Yes | 40c | 61.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d8…00f3backed Yes | 30c | 60.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4005…4ae4backed Yes | 57c | 52.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 50.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…aa9bbacked Yes | 27c | 43.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf711…9c53backed Yes | 55c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53f0…fff4backed Yes | 37c | 40.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d5…dd7bbacked No | 68c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc191…b89cbacked Yes | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…f3d2backed Yes | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tundra Esports win DreamLeague 28?this page
- Will Aurora win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will MOUZ win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will OG win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will PARIVISION win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will Perú Rejects win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will Team Falcons win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will Team Liquid win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will Team Spirit win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will Team Yandex win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will Xtreme Gaming win DreamLeague 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.