Dota2 · resolved market
Will Aurora win DreamLeague 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7673d44d0582b4eb6139e43802b7937a53729ae823532b0a4ebde5dc47e2e756
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf711…9c53backed No | 57c | 4,535$2,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Yes | 43c | 3,953$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 56c | 2,341$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.31 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5a…aca1backed Yes | 44c | 1,361$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.8 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Yes | 37c | 999.97$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.99 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 10c | 613.07$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…a046backed Yes | 43c | 581.47$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.03 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 25c | 463.52$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Yes | 18c | 253.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805b…be54backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…eedcbacked Yes | 20c | 224.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Yes | 37c | 199.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 12c | 170$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084b…3de6backed Yes | 18c | 159.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f0…fff4backed No | 79c | 141.11$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 125.89$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yes | 12c | 109.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Yes | 23c | 108.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…3255backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 19c | 90.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked Yes | 13c | 82.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 72cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…643dbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 49.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c72…cc11backed No | 59c | 42.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 62c | 32.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 67c | 19.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed No | 57c | 18.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 218 | 51.8%113 W · 105 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aurora win DreamLeague 28?this page
- Will MOUZ win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will OG win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will PARIVISION win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will Perú Rejects win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will Team Falcons win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will Team Liquid win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will Team Spirit win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will Team Yandex win DreamLeague 28?No won
- Will Tundra Esports win DreamLeague 28?Yes won
- Will Xtreme Gaming win DreamLeague 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.