Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeda59ce1cf25778fb22994dbb34122f9123e540334b58e7ede4dbfa583797b15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 1,900$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 80c | 533.48$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.08 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 427.66$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 405.26$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.37 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 77c | 291$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 17c | 210$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 22c | 197.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 195.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 22c | 194.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 165.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 78c | 138.46$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 80c | 132.47$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 121.66$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 30c | 105$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 94.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 94.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 93.89$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 87.86$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 26c | 86.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 21c | 82.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 69.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 70c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 19c | 60.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 74c | 42.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 80c | 40.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3d…bdddbacked Yes | 30c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 73c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 75c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 72c | 18.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 16.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 83°F or below on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.