TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,669
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,119

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,669 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes23c1,434$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.688,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No77c774.99$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.118,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes53c529.49$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.964,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No52c474.01$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.432,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes19c395.84$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.31,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No36c358.7$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.1263323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes20c283.21$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.432,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No28c276.87$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3939956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No60c239.25$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.844,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No37c214.06$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.462,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c208.88$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29d4…5d18backed Yes19c183$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.145332.1%17 W · 36 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No70c176.28$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No77c160$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.581,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5548…9cc6backed Yes64c155.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6219757.4%113 W · 84 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes22c155.09$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.251,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No75c121.31$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.51,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No80c121$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.84,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No79c119.19$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.311,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No47c117.96$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.364,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed Yes14c117.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.6251156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No62c106.76$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3448523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No79c102.98$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2349675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No52c102.32$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.973,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9481848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68af…2639backed Yes36c99.98$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.999048.9%44 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No29c98.17$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes14c92.26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.94,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No75c89.41$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.499,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes54c85.78$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8154154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfab1…e45bbacked No74c84.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.194346.5%20 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No58c77.27$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.464,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No16c74.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.92,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No69c73.71$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No73c71.76$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.374,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes37c66.48$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9765749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No39c62.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3770741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes25c56.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.42,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbe…4f51backed No58c54.72$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.789150.5%46 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed No39c51.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2054656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No80c48.57$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.861,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No74c42.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.771057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No49c42.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.551,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes60c40.66$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.263253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3147…9145backed Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301457.1%8 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No75c36.68$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.341,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3b…d0a9backed No79c35.29$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.822378.3%18 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick76cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No70c34.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.132,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x322c…8fe9backed No71c32.03$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.744870.8%34 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.94,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No60c29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.42,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No71c29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.641,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc85b…ba1bbacked No71c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7819071.6%136 W · 54 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8177…e5d4backed No71c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.888976.4%68 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c27.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.445,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4122…f0d5backed Yes40c26.49$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.951546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No72c26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.834,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05b9…0e6dbacked No61c23.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.164358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No73c21.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.362,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x850f…b208backed No72c20.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159460.6%57 W · 37 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes68c20.2$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4647239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4606…f3cebacked No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.82356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.95,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No70c18.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6628360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No79c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.93,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No73c14.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3649359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No80c13.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.641,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.