Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ec9376fe9e843dbe26c787f97ede60bc1af26cc348461918bf3a1a23fb0a6e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 1,434$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 774.99$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 529.49$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.96 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 474.01$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.43 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 19c | 395.84$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.3 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 36c | 358.7$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.12 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 283.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.43 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 28c | 276.87$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 239.25$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.84 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 37c | 214.06$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 208.88$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 19c | 183$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.14 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 176.28$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 77c | 160$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.58 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 64c | 155.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 22c | 155.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.25 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 75c | 121.31$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 121$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 79c | 119.19$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 117.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 14c | 117.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.62 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 62c | 106.76$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 102.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 102.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 98.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 14c | 92.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 89.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 54c | 85.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked No | 74c | 84.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 77.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 16c | 74.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 73.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 71.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 37c | 66.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 39c | 62.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 56.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 58c | 54.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 39c | 51.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 80c | 48.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 74c | 42.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 49c | 42.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes | 60c | 40.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…9145backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 36.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…d0a9backed No | 79c | 35.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 70c | 34.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 71c | 32.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 27.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…f0d5backed Yes | 40c | 26.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked No | 61c | 23.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 21.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 68c | 20.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…f3cebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 70c | 18.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 73c | 14.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 80c | 13.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 83°F or below on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.