Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeddc7ba11a43feb9905dacc124ccf3805c28fdda22880780c5f4f0b14237328e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa00d…d576backed Yes | 0c | 6,930$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b5…1167backed Yes | 35c | 536.54$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…c81abacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 30c | 301.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 35c | 293.32$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.95 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 16c | 274.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 12c | 261.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…7e15backed No | 69c | 242$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 13c | 240.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 30c | 211.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…43dabacked Yes | 29c | 204.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 34c | 190.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 186.75$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 77c | 179.83$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 37c | 164.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 11c | 156.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 144.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 21c | 141.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 21c | 131.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7288…42a3backed No | 72c | 102.44$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2665…ddd5backed Yes | 13c | 102.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11bb…43eebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…b78abacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 90.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 79.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908e…89e9backed Yes | 26c | 75.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…4af3backed No | 70c | 71.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 21c | 69.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe623…a467backed Yes | 31c | 63.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed No | 73c | 54.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 34c | 50.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc6…e824backed Yes | 41c | 48.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…7201backed Yes | 28c | 46.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4d…0e7fbacked Yes | 51c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6f…f85dbacked No | 72c | 38.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7847…bdcdbacked Yes | 36c | 38.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…68d1backed No | 61c | 37.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7d…0639backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 75c | 25.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…c7c9backed No | 61c | 24.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 23.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…ecdcbacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…c149backed No | 77c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb274…b218backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bd…d708backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…4cb2backed No | 72c | 14.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 25°F or below on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on January 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.