Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on January 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x436149f932f591d25a65b5d7dfa7391b5408b009efbb9dbd70d980f4883ffc0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 36c | 945.56$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.59 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 64c | 872.52$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.18 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed No | 12c | 345$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 13c | 314.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 23c | 300$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 74c | 281.18$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.81 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 6c | 264.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 37c | 257$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.05 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8035…cf72backed No | 13c | 233.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 37c | 219.24$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 17c | 210.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…4edbbacked Yes | 65c | 205.41$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.31 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…cebcbacked No | 26c | 158.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 32c | 145.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed Yes | 77c | 140$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…a9d9backed No | 17c | 112.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 13c | 112.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa73c…4044backed No | 19c | 104$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 70c | 103.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…b78abacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11bb…43eebacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…524fbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 78c | 94.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…3595backed Yes | 64c | 92.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 62c | 90.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 79c | 84.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 60c | 82.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b8…411fbacked Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…032cbacked Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…5851backed No | 35c | 69.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 63c | 69.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7847…bdcdbacked Yes | 66c | 62.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc6…e824backed Yes | 70c | 61.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…2c54backed No | 32c | 59.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4d…0e7fbacked Yes | 68c | 59.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 58.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…7e15backed Yes | 49c | 58.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…de01backed Yes | 72c | 51.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 60c | 44.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 37c | 41.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…dd08backed Yes | 72c | 41.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…cba5backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7d…0639backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad1…d674backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 38c | 38.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 61c | 36.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c0…3167backed Yes | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 36c | 36.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3c…44aebacked Yes | 57c | 35.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x271b…d4b0backed Yes | 61c | 32.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…7201backed Yes | 63c | 32.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a5…28f1backed Yes | 65c | 30.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9647…8e2ebacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f2…97f9backed No | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74ce…e76bbacked Yes | 71c | 28.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…8a62backed Yes | 59c | 27.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…4b6dbacked No | 39c | 27.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd25…dadcbacked No | 46c | 26.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…7034backed Yes | 60c | 24.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…3a35backed Yes | 63c | 23.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 65c | 22.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23a9…64f3backed Yes | 60c | 22.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb274…b218backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 67c | 22.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 62c | 20.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…639bbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97a2…fa4dbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f3…f11dbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588e…5a21backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…5683backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…b13cbacked Yes | 63c | 19.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…ffe9backed Yes | 59c | 17.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 63c | 17.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…9ee5backed Yes | 68c | 16.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2935…eed8backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…ce12backed Yes | 73c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on January 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 25°F or below on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.