Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. SK Rapid Wien end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xede7d5d316f13c9fe7c52ad59bed8b01b328c83e2ca657e0aad33910d5e1d6cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 26c | 9,412$2,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,964.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 3,699$2,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,743.57 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 75c | 2,234$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.42 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked No | 4c | 2,200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +312.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 2,036$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.3 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 25c | 2,030$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.75 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 74c | 1,168$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 23c | 1,097$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.66 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa297…8e9bbacked Yes | 31c | 976.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 74c | 700$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 123 | 36.6%45 W · 78 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 26c | 640.68$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.93 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.26 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 26c | 217.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.1 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 74c | 135.8$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed No | 74c | 132.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 41c | 126.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40f…2fa3backed Yes | 26c | 111.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 101.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 74c | 100.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed No | 74c | 86.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 74c | 76.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 75c | 54.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Yes | 26c | 40.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 74c | 39.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 75c | 38.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…fbb3backed No | 74c | 30.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e2c2backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 75c | 17.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. SK Rapid Wien end in a draw?this page
- Will HŠK Zrinjski Mostar win on 2025-12-18?No won
- Will SK Rapid Wien win on 2025-12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.