Tennis · resolved market
Open Sud de France: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Adrian Mannarino
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedfac5b93e466672ac59be28f49f92299a540a1a9f0c3293e9b03d7308f08874
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auger-Aliassimeof Auger-Aliassime, Mannarino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $171,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Mannarino | 18c | 16,679$2,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,953.36 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Mannarino | 6c | 16,361$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.07 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Mannarino | 8c | 13,262$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.63 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Mannarino | 18c | 8,158$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.8 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mannarino | 6c | 7,604$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.78 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e0…375bbacked Mannarino | 18c | 7,406$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.97 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Mannarino | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 450 | 36%162 W · 288 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Mannarino | 8c | 3,125$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Mannarino | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Mannarino | 9c | 2,778$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Mannarino | 6c | 1,976$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.44 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mannarino | 6c | 1,729$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Mannarino | 9c | 1,715$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.1 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…0db4backed Mannarino | 18c | 1,457$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.21 | 545 | 47.9%261 W · 284 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…9d67backed Mannarino | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 394 | 31%122 W · 272 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Mannarino | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…e4f7backed Mannarino | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…5754backed Mannarino | 17c | 972.07$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.93 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…f560backed Mannarino | 7c | 833.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241a…a9c8backed Mannarino | 14c | 775$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Mannarino | 14c | 742.36$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Mannarino | 17c | 700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Mannarino | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 387 | 39.3%152 W · 235 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Mannarino | 5c | 559$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Mannarino | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…19fcbacked Mannarino | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 52.9%72 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf334…0606backed Mannarino | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca4…e4e7backed Mannarino | 11c | 361.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked Mannarino | 17c | 360$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Mannarino | 11c | 357.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…44dfbacked Mannarino | 18c | 278$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Mannarino | 11c | 260$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mannarino | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mannarino | 11c | 224.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103b…dcc9backed Mannarino | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Mannarino | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Mannarino | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Mannarino | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…1511backed Mannarino | 10c | 144.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935b…a5cebacked Mannarino | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mannarino | 15c | 119$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Mannarino | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3695…0c7cbacked Mannarino | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…2352backed Mannarino | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc188…c30dbacked Mannarino | 17c | 94.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Mannarino | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Open Sud de France: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Adrian Mannarinothis page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Mannarino: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs MannarinoAuger-Aliassime won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5)Auger-Aliassime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.