Asian League · resolved market
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee007123c21dff28bff3cfe4276065b388cfb35f49a9cb2be41e326d91da7f03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41d2…d7c9backed Over | 48c | 3,124$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.65 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.92 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 2,386$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.83 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 53c | 1,363$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.72 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 46c | 639.4$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.22 | 1,617 | 36.3%587 W · 1,030 L | -34.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 52c | 307.37$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.83 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 17c | 290$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.7 | 876 | 45.1%395 W · 481 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 35c | 151.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 424 | 25.9%110 W · 314 L | -32.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 34c | 120.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Over | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 84.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…616dbacked Under | 60c | 82.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 47c | 81.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 78.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 47c | 78.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 237 | 61.6%146 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9772…6700backed Under | 72c | 69.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 28c | 58.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 273 | 38.8%106 W · 167 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 55c | 53.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 313 | 59.7%187 W · 126 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Under | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5492…d420backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 50cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 762 | 55.9%426 W · 336 L | +38.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 60c | 35.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 434 | 52.1%226 W · 208 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 47c | 31.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 47c | 30.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 47c | 22.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 4.5this page
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 0.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 2.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 3.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 5.5Over won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Urawa Red Diamonds 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.