Asian League · resolved market
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee2e3c79ac7f756245b3871674439edbff52462b83b2ba6e7713cf2a63c9192c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 1c | 3,589$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +13.5wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 32c | 585.72$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.29 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f39…311abacked Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +80%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 477.38$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.29 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2476…7eeebacked Over | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 70cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x174e…6eb7backed Over | 78c | 256.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…9ec2backed Under | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…5f1abacked Under | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 73c | 174.28$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…6674backed Over | 50c | 170$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7986…901bbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…ed71backed Under | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…bc0dbacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…0289backed Over | 73c | 41.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 71cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 78c | 35.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 76c | 32.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 52c | 25.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…1f67backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b11dbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Beijing Guoan FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Chengdu Rongcheng FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.