Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77698a17e788b0d80c762b4ae79a52a8aa26ded4c0932f7c70e47eba7010ba2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chengdu Rongcheng FCof Beijing Guoan FC, Chengdu Rongcheng FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07ea…a6babacked Beijing Guoan FC | 66c | 2,244$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.98 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chengdu Rongcheng FC | 35c | 963.97$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.88 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Chengdu Rongcheng FC | 33c | 875.09$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.31 | 270 | 37%100 W · 170 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Beijing Guoan FC | 8c | 700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965f…c5b7backed Chengdu Rongcheng FC | 40c | 496.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Beijing Guoan FC | 49c | 95.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Beijing Guoan FC | 54c | 55.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Chengdu Rongcheng FC | 34c | 41.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Beijing Guoan FC | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Beijing Guoan FC | 61c | 25.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)this page
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Beijing Guoan FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Chengdu Rongcheng FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.