NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee5a92af54aa3bb67ab0d8dcbc2fb7670ab1df06bd2e6a67aca99cd9d5d79e87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Magic, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Magic | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 258 | 47.3%122 W · 136 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 48c | 3,091$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Magic | 51c | 2,541$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.63 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Hawks | 47c | 1,489$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.17 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Magic | 51c | 1,363$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.27 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 49c | 1,091$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Hawks | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Hawks | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks | 48c | 785.31$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.7 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6737…9053backed Hawks | 53c | 599$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Magic | 52c | 399.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.99 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Hawks | 53c | 281$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.07 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Hawks | 50c | 276$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.4 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks | 46c | 272$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.88 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Hawks | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Magic | 51c | 163$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Hawks | 54c | 115.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Magic | 53c | 90.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Hawks | 50c | 88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Magic | 52c | 56.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 264 | 39.4%104 W · 160 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 50c | 53.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Hawks | 42c | 50.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Hawks | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)this page
- Hawks vs. MagicHawks won
- Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 231.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 234.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.