Tennis · resolved market
Morelos: Alafia Ayeni vs Keegan Smith
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee700252421603f536493b44f1b267c73475d6137189f1187b9ea5314ea70929
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alafia Ayeniof Alafia Ayeni, Keegan Smith
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,654 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cf7…737ebacked Keegan Smith | 74c | 2,967$2,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Keegan Smith | 73c | 2,820$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.45 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Alafia Ayeni | 13c | 2,727$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,378.99 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Alafia Ayeni | 29c | 2,158$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.57 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f9…62bfbacked Alafia Ayeni | 27c | 2,123$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.79 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Alafia Ayeni | 28c | 1,789$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.8 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Alafia Ayeni | 28c | 1,694$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.17 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f2…a822backed Keegan Smith | 71c | 1,355$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.83 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Keegan Smith | 73c | 924.38$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.99 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Alafia Ayeni | 24c | 905.02$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.27 | 288 | 35.1%101 W · 187 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Keegan Smith | 16c | 870.91$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.02 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Alafia Ayeni | 35c | 739.12$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.25 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Alafia Ayeni | 63c | 522.7$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.82 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Alafia Ayeni | 23c | 450$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Alafia Ayeni | 29c | 441.35$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.35 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +18.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Alafia Ayeni | 29c | 431.21$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.16 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Keegan Smith | 71c | 430.9$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.95 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Keegan Smith | 74c | 425$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.5 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -9.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Keegan Smith | 39c | 419.69$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.36 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Alafia Ayeni | 27c | 407.08$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.17 | 407 | 44%179 W · 228 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Keegan Smith | 73c | 388.28$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.08 | 299 | 52.2%156 W · 143 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe0…d377backed Keegan Smith | 74c | 386.18$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…fa8ebacked Keegan Smith | 66c | 329.9$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.58 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Alafia Ayeni | 24c | 324.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.7 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46aa…d886backed Keegan Smith | 74c | 310.55$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Alafia Ayeni | 19c | 275.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.9 | 469 | 32%150 W · 319 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Alafia Ayeni | 32c | 236.8$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.41 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Keegan Smith | 75c | 224$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 382 | 68.1%260 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Alafia Ayeni | 21c | 209.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.68 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Alafia Ayeni | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Alafia Ayeni | 32c | 188.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.15 | 363 | 33.9%123 W · 240 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Alafia Ayeni | 48c | 188.47$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.62 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…5c9fbacked Alafia Ayeni | 26c | 162.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Alafia Ayeni | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Alafia Ayeni | 28c | 160$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…20e3backed Keegan Smith | 68c | 159.5$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf7…0505backed Keegan Smith | 68c | 156.95$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Alafia Ayeni | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Keegan Smith | 68c | 148.53$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Keegan Smith | 71c | 139.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Alafia Ayeni | 29c | 130.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.27 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b61…b7eabacked Keegan Smith | 69c | 130.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Keegan Smith | 73c | 130.14$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Alafia Ayeni | 28c | 108.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 203 | 36%73 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Alafia Ayeni | 31c | 108$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Alafia Ayeni | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Keegan Smith | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 147 | 46.3%68 W · 79 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Alafia Ayeni | 20c | 94.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Alafia Ayeni | 19c | 94.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Alafia Ayeni | 27c | 79.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17fb…5d28backed Keegan Smith | 68c | 78.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…92d8backed Keegan Smith | 69c | 71.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Alafia Ayeni | 75c | 71.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…692ebacked Keegan Smith | 72c | 69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 534 | 57.7%308 W · 226 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…9588backed Keegan Smith | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Alafia Ayeni | 29c | 66.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Keegan Smith | 72c | 66.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Alafia Ayeni | 45c | 58.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b91…ac5cbacked Alafia Ayeni | 33c | 54.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1039…2914backed Keegan Smith | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 287 | 64.1%184 W · 103 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…4f54backed Alafia Ayeni | 41c | 45.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 263 | 49.4%130 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Alafia Ayeni | 27c | 44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Keegan Smith | 55c | 43.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Keegan Smith | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 474 | 53.2%252 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…9189backed Alafia Ayeni | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 206 | 64.1%132 W · 74 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Alafia Ayeni | 35c | 38.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 384 | 60.4%232 W · 152 L | +29.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Keegan Smith | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…f632backed Keegan Smith | 70c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…48febacked Keegan Smith | 72c | 33.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Keegan Smith | 71c | 32.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Keegan Smith | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 43.9%144 W · 184 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Keegan Smith | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Keegan Smith | 72c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed Alafia Ayeni | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Keegan Smith | 73c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Keegan Smith | 74c | 13.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.