UFC · resolved market
Will Zhang Mingyang win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee846fe0bdbd7d8d5f2d4b781c68683eedfcd4d9ab6c4a69bc1b2253c185e9d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31c8…9277backed Yes | 60c | 1,416$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 50c | 1,313$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.39 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 40c | 1,008$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x141a…95a9backed Yes | 58c | 532.29$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.92 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 41c | 499.96$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.98 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb0…2329backed Yes | 60c | 320.35$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.91 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed No | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d36…111bbacked Yes | 60c | 196.45$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…9d0fbacked Yes | 60c | 105.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc1…4bcbbacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8b…e3c9backed Yes | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Yes | 61c | 51.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a55ebacked No | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…c14abacked Yes | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…db2ebacked Yes | 59c | 38.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…d8c4backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa7…bff7backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5b…ba31backed Yes | 61c | 32.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21c…3fd3backed Yes | 60c | 31.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3f…11f4backed No | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 42c | 29.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x365e…3e44backed Yes | 59c | 29.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450a…0712backed Yes | 59c | 24.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…8275backed Yes | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bf…147fbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…1c8cbacked Yes | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zhang Mingyang win by KO or TKO?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Alonzo Menifield won
- Will Alonzo Menifield win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.