Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee8ad9fc6c1e0c2421c08648bb07693eb57dcd91e889ef27226ab7b89b029a4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 69c | 2,048$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.75 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,667$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 76c | 1,435$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.23 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f26…be98backed Yes | 32c | 869.47$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.23 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 31c | 636.49$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.41 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…8423backed Yes | 20c | 619.66$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.13 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 70c | 571.74$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.34 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…cf7cbacked Yes | 31c | 524.9$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 35c | 488$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.8 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 12c | 427.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 70c | 409.89$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.97 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 76c | 361$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 32c | 347$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.42 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 223.33$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 69c | 193$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 69c | 171.59$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8b03backed No | 72c | 139$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Yes | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 70c | 101.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 30c | 65.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -23%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea20…af4cbacked No | 71c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 69c | 18.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-05-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.