Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0db19c0bf0cb256209138b15c6fc5a85ae269249efe187d6909e77ae7e418cb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 44c | 20,000$8,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,200.06 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 56c | 16,379$9,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,172.02 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 78c | 5,545$4,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.37 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 56c | 2,732$1,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.85 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 80c | 1,816$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.18 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 32c | 1,764$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.39 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 55c | 1,618$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.01 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 2c | 1,510$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked Yes | 68c | 1,316$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.05 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +37%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 56c | 892.83$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed No | 53c | 838.78$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.55 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 5c | 715.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 44c | 646.43$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.42 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 68c | 482.94$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.84 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 56c | 387.13$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.79 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…cf7cbacked No | 56c | 382.5$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 4c | 351.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 54c | 312$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.81 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 57c | 302.24$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.26 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 44c | 230$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed No | 54c | 218$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.72 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Yes | 45c | 140.79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 79c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 56c | 102.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce6…8e94backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 56c | 71.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 21c | 67.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…7eaebacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Yes | 67c | 38.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Yes | 44c | 36.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Yes | 41c | 32.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…ba40backed Yes | 37c | 29.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 44c | 28.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked No | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 53c | 20.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd60f…b6c4backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw?No won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.