TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 245.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,133
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,113

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,133 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbf32…e0e7backed Over48c2,100$1,008 inWon+$1,0922864.3%18 W · 10 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+32.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c50…a2a9backed Under52c2,100$1,092 inLost-$1,0921947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd702…2052backed Over48c2,000$960 inWon+$1,0401838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1ec…55ebbacked Under52c2,000$1,040 inLost-$1,0401952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Over57c2,000$1,140 inWon+$859.9951753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under43c1,015$440 inLost-$440.138,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under43c614.88$264 inLost-$264.41,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over49c611.98$300 inWon+$312.112,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over50c415.21$208 inWon+$206.769,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Over48c372.9$179 inWon+$193.9138148.6%185 W · 196 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x845b…9041backed Under52c372.9$194 inLost-$193.911844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under43c300$129 inLost-$12972647.7%346 W · 380 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under48c262.49$126 inLost-$1262,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Under51c196$100 inLost-$99.9643052.3%225 W · 205 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under52c192.31$100 inLost-$1001,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under43c166.16$72 inLost-$71.8352643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under49c82.61$40 inLost-$40.481,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a0b…2a83backed Over57c52.61$30 inWon+$22.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Under43c50$22 inLost-$21.595548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef46…f872backed Under52c48.08$25 inLost-$252254.5%12 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over55c28$15 inWon+$12.61,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed Under44c22.91$10 inLost-$10.0816447.6%78 W · 86 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.