NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdec1f274c23a39237be3e8ac2310cae5da03092062d3934de3a965c3b70c9f74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 53c | 31,684$16,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,905.63 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 24,201$11,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,302.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 54c | 2,908$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.59 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa63c…27a4backed Under | 47c | 2,470$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd2…60c2backed Under | 47c | 2,250$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Under | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 171 | 51.5%88 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…aeb9backed Under | 46c | 1,740$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.4 | 139 | 37.4%52 W · 87 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 57c | 1,642$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.11 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 916$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.34 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 47c | 530.89$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.63 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 46c | 503.91$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.13 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 47c | 381$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.07 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under | 47c | 351.2$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.87 | 381 | 48.6%185 W · 196 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 44c | 139.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e4…3034backed Over | 56c | 101$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 57c | 66.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 46c | 66.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 65.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70af…bcf2backed Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 47c | 62.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…bc9bbacked Under | 45c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Under | 47c | 49.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…abc3backed Under | 45c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Pelicans vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 243.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 244.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 245.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 247.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 248.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.