NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a5812224a5c74bf85ddc6508df011f1579bbe0d85a5a8c42057154d95098d50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 54c | 4,483$2,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,062 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 3,943$1,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1912…686cbacked Over | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29c…d4efbacked Under | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 53c | 1,005$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.4 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 47c | 912.55$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.9 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Under | 39c | 749.99$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.5 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 54c | 672.37$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.29 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Over | 61c | 653.24$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.76 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 31c | 337.85$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 51c | 290.96$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.39 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…e692backed Over | 55c | 219.9$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.85 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Under | 46c | 217.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over | 54c | 177.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…f17bbacked Over | 68c | 147.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…7c59backed Over | 53c | 132$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under | 42c | 119.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 52c | 103.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 101$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Over | 51c | 96.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5812…3e4ebacked Under | 49c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70af…bcf2backed Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9273…4d96backed Under | 45c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 36c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 45c | 44.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 56c | 28.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 59c | 22.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Pelicans vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 243.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 244.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 245.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 247.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Cavaliers: O/U 248.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.