Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeea699c90913b7b0f9153bf2b1fcc179ebd297287a6fd3923fe70cb92f4a7f65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 0c | 53,175$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 34c | 1,122$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.36 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,028$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 997.33$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 4c | 848.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 801$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 32c | 678.8$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 663.26$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 8c | 562.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 539.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 12c | 473.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 71c | 453.63$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.78 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 6c | 430.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 6c | 411.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 11c | 361.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 38c | 346.36$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 3c | 340.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 7c | 308.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 7c | 308.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 58c | 264.41$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.69 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 32c | 233.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 23c | 205.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 182.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 24c | 164.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 15c | 163$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 62c | 162.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed No | 63c | 158.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 18c | 149.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 10c | 143.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…85ddbacked No | 79c | 126.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 122.96$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 16c | 121.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 119.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 48c | 116.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 33c | 110.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 20c | 104.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…0a6cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed No | 70c | 92.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 19c | 90.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed Yes | 12c | 90.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…8d27backed Yes | 16c | 88.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 17c | 88.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 58c | 85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…9b9cbacked Yes | 23c | 70.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 76c | 68.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 26c | 64.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 63.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…0a2abacked No | 72c | 63.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 17c | 59.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 37c | 56.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 24c | 54.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…69debacked Yes | 33c | 53.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 31c | 50.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…d440backed Yes | 26c | 43.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…9e72backed Yes | 29c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 31c | 35.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 33c | 35.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 35c | 31.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 58c | 29.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed Yes | 70c | 27.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 25.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 46c | 23.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 71c | 22.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 21.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…769bbacked No | 72c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c69…9867backed No | 73c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b3…0b0fbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 37°F or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 56°F or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.