TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,713
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,123

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,713 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cb…4b77backed Yes0c53,175$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.831868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes34c1,122$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.361,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes5c1,028$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.290040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c997.33$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.2617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes4c848.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0224216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes20c801$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.086,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes32c678.8$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22011233.9%38 W · 74 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No79c663.26$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.4512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes8c562.49$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8621436%77 W · 137 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes8c539.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.21,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes12c473.42$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.234617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No71c453.63$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.7814442.4%61 W · 83 L-11.7wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-35.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes6c430.35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.357229.2%21 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes6c411.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.878432.1%27 W · 57 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes11c361.32$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.159923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes38c346.36$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13039535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes3c340.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2619617.9%35 W · 161 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes7c308.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.519133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1385…e96abacked Yes7c308.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3413732.1%44 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6240…3727backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.94869.3%8 W · 78 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes58c264.41$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6919449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes32c233.11$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.325725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes23c205.25$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7410043%43 W · 57 L+9.0wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes17c182.83$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7232738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes24c164.06$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011128.8%32 W · 79 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes15c163$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.931,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No62c162.97$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.031,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc437…0f42backed No63c158.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.62927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-41.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed Yes18c149.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.829139.6%36 W · 55 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6850…d921backed Yes10c143.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.448111.1%9 W · 72 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf97d…85ddbacked No79c126.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.55977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+28.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No68c122.96$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.462,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes16c121.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes22c119.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.43,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd5…4390backed Yes48c116.75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.936660.6%40 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes33c110.47$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9626828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Yes20c104.66$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9313523%31 W · 104 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…87a9backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.846423.5%109 W · 355 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2de8…0a6cbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick24cpaid+11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b6a…8f52backed No70c92.28$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.583956.4%22 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes19c90.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9777428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f7…fd31backed Yes12c90.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8912535.2%44 W · 81 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a3…8d27backed Yes16c88.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-50.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes17c88.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed No58c85$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.713748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68cf…9b9cbacked Yes23c70.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5190%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No76c68.16$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1629056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes26c64.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.541,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No69c63.51$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xdc18…0a2abacked No72c63.47$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.972166.7%14 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0263538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes17c59.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0159125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No75c57$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1291967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No37c56.16$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.161,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd03…932fbacked Yes24c54.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.924126.8%11 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0401…69debacked Yes33c53.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.862334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Yes31c50.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8513554.8%74 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149520%19 W · 76 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes69c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4510562.9%66 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x444c…d440backed Yes26c43.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.431435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6754…9e72backed Yes29c43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.472025%5 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes58c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.127648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes31c35.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1186847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes33c35.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4989544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x368c…e8d5backed No73c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.46243.5%27 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No76c32.7$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.71,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No35c31.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.232818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No58c29.7$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.441,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5637…21f4backed Yes70c27.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.263938.5%15 W · 24 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No65c25.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.023,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No78c25.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6114071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes46c23.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.931,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No71c22.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6732760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No57c21.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.267,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x17f3…769bbacked No72c18.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.262661.5%16 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick71cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c69…9867backed No73c15.01$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.061758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2b3…0b0fbacked No76c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick73cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.