Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x688f570e0cbfb1365c3b86169c9b2d1b93086ce362d2e6e8bbdda850ebb63221
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,706 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 1,269$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 23c | 1,086$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.15 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 41c | 647.92$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.43 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 43c | 517.23$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.23 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 19c | 500.42$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.12 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 474.08$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 5c | 468.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 452.46$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 62c | 451.6$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.45 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 39c | 425.88$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.26 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 74c | 369.83$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.37 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 36c | 362.48$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.95 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 24c | 325.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 314.68$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.74 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 28c | 300$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.89 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 17c | 291.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 26c | 269.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.82 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 258.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.82 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 8c | 242.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 6c | 210.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 76c | 205.47$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 205$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.7 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 10c | 198.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 10c | 198.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 10c | 177.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 70c | 173.98$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 171.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 33c | 163$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.58 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 156.46$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.91 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 63c | 156$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 66c | 155.41$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…40c2backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +145.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 78c | 137.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.04 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 28c | 135.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.14 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 133.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.47 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 75c | 129$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 121.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 118.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…89edbacked Yes | 35c | 108.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.98 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 27c | 97.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…8cb0backed Yes | 31c | 96.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 33c | 95.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 61c | 93.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 26c | 89.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 22c | 87.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6822…12b1backed Yes | 39c | 85.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 37c | 82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 81.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 24c | 79.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 75.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 50c | 75.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 33c | 73.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed No | 76c | 71.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 44c | 70.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 68.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 75c | 63.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 29c | 61.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 78c | 60.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…6f0bbacked Yes | 29c | 56.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9192…92acbacked No | 64c | 55.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8744…3d64backed No | 62c | 55.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…4cccbacked Yes | 39c | 51.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 40c | 50.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…8c2fbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 43c | 47.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 30c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696c…c5debacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 41.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…769bbacked No | 78c | 41.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da7…6d19backed No | 65c | 40.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 29c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 70c | 39.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed No | 78c | 39.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe8…7df5backed Yes | 36c | 39.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 37c | 37.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 67c | 32.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 43c | 32.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 64c | 31.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 30.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked Yes | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 70c | 28.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072c…40e4backed No | 63c | 27.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862e…b9b0backed Yes | 39c | 27.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…5d51backed No | 76c | 26.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 25.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 73c | 22.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 70c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 61c | 21.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 61c | 20.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd10…7b05backed No | 64c | 18.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07ad…2df4backed No | 67c | 17.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…c2d0backed No | 74c | 16.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 37°F or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 56°F or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.