Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 56°F or higher on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdefd4f228f4a6eebf4f51cd949c2fcfc7c2131be15246c2e4538566b7c706675
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,824 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 34c | 1,369$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.76 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,268$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 43c | 807.29$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.86 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 13c | 601.41$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 599.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 54c | 488.33$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.96 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 9c | 481.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 25c | 459.34$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.83 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 22c | 403.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 15c | 399.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 392.76$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.48 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 69c | 299.99$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.38 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 52c | 292.53$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.22 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 291.92$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 14c | 289.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 52c | 286.86$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.33 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 72c | 277.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 35c | 259.7$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 22c | 258.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.18 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 21c | 241.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.97 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 12c | 213.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 40c | 209.84$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.89 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 64c | 205.66$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.63 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 204.09$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 64c | 203.19$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.19 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 27c | 200$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.55 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 189.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 73c | 182$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 8c | 176.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 8c | 176.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 54c | 170$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 43c | 163$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 57c | 148.54$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 29c | 129.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 128.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 122.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 119.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 23c | 119.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 27c | 113.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 78c | 104.01$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…8cb0backed Yes | 23c | 94.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…b65ebacked No | 21c | 94.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…12bdbacked No | 47c | 83.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 81.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 23c | 80.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…4364backed No | 26c | 80.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +279.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 35c | 79.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 77.48$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 14c | 73.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 71c | 70.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 60c | 68.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 22c | 68.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 52c | 67.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…0a6cbacked Yes | 75c | 67.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e32…000ebacked No | 20c | 66.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 21c | 66.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 30c | 65.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 48c | 65.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 56c | 65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…dc25backed Yes | 73c | 65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed No | 25c | 62.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb087…f41bbacked Yes | 59c | 62.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 59.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 58c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…73a4backed No | 75c | 53.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed Yes | 27c | 53.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 31c | 52.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e4…eec0backed Yes | 54c | 51.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa303…5ba1backed Yes | 31c | 49.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 63cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked Yes | 42c | 48.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…2d9dbacked No | 69c | 46.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…89edbacked Yes | 48c | 45.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…1a83backed Yes | 78c | 45.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 44c | 43.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf3…3c08backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…87b0backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…769bbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 62c | 39.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 44c | 34.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 52c | 32.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 74c | 32.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 40c | 32.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 78c | 30.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…8fe7backed Yes | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…cc7abacked Yes | 57c | 28.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -62%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked Yes | 77c | 26.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…bdc4backed Yes | 78c | 25.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed No | 79c | 25.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…d132backed Yes | 79c | 25.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ec…40edbacked Yes | 79c | 25.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 56°F or higher on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 37°F or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.