Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique Lyonnais vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeedbdb7b4a7766c9b0d091ca7b03ea50b2626b8888714e94e041e26cf162f760
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 68c | 1,691$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.11 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 1,143$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.02 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Over | 14c | 379$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…7ad6backed Over | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 66c | 296.82$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.92 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Over | 4c | 252.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 30c | 241.7$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…0e4cbacked Over | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Under | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a4…f12dbacked Under | 79c | 199.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 21c | 193.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 32c | 182.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 34c | 176.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 66c | 136.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…21f2backed Over | 35c | 128.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e60…f42cbacked Under | 68c | 102.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 26c | 81.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 31c | 80.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Under | 68c | 63.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…c5c5backed Over | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Over | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Over | 33c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…3161backed Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5this page
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.