Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique Lyonnais vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ee80daa82b7c1ddc62e32ff74b72981d2cf38ace241489cfafca8b8c65157ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 3,668$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.12 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5905…a34cbacked Over | 72c | 1,700$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 36c | 1,447$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.19 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 34c | 1,043$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 55c | 913.69$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.69 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 21c | 683.9$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.61 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…90ebbacked Under | 25c | 648.92$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over | 63c | 531.69$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 33c | 526.68$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.96 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 77c | 350$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 76c | 342.11$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 21c | 321.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…a4cdbacked Over | 79c | 316.46$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 74c | 268.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4674backed Under | 30c | 243.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Over | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 79c | 192.97$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4b…b015backed Over | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 63c | 188.85$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb56…efa6backed Under | 22c | 181.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…6768backed Over | 50c | 171.21$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…4db5backed Under | 22c | 170.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…e801backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 79c | 152.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d9…d3e2backed Over | 70c | 143.32$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…3ea1backed Over | 77c | 124.01$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…6bf3backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…4e55backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Over | 75c | 83.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +18.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 21c | 80.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b9…8714backed Over | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…29c5backed Over | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed Over | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…79a5backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20f…fcaabacked Over | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 65c | 49.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…1f58backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed Over | 68c | 38.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Over | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…d654backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 75c | 30.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2548…b742backed Over | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…a753backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 56c | 28.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…a8a9backed Over | 77c | 25.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…4fc5backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…188fbacked Over | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc503…b82cbacked Over | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f3…ebf6backed Over | 66c | 18.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5this page
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.