MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef4268cec928cdcecd268e9d96960d72b83c78659b89e72e2ca183bf065c5bc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f79…1608backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 4,762$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.9 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 4,320$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.24 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Chicago White Sox | 9c | 3,884$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 3,182$1,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.15 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Chicago White Sox | 12c | 2,299$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.74 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Chicago White Sox | 6c | 1,486$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 1,316$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Chicago White Sox | 2c | 1,095$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Chicago White Sox | 39c | 897.44$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Chicago White Sox | 39c | 710$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.7 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Chicago White Sox | 13c | 540$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 442.34$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.67 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 299.99$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Chicago White Sox | 9c | 207$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 194.75$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Chicago White Sox | 28c | 142$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…726cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 132$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 84.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Chicago White Sox | 38c | 69.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 66.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.