Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef46612715b984d6453a08cdbf90c529e7e54d52a6f070511a77fc6c26cd6ee8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 46c | 366.85$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.57 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e20…0815backed No | 52c | 193.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 183.41$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 167.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 161.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 68c | 146.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 72c | 144.3$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 38c | 129.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 115.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 56c | 108.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 58c | 108.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 43c | 104.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 61c | 102.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 38c | 77.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…7c05backed No | 66c | 76.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 68c | 74.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 51c | 66.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 64.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 35c | 64.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 57.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 37c | 54.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 44c | 52.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 59c | 51.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed No | 78c | 50.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 45c | 48.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 26c | 45.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 34c | 44.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 69c | 43.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 41.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85eb…8f73backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 61c | 26.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 21.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 59c | 21.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 79c | 20.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 9°C or below on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.