NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef4b8914e1d0ade0d409da862ba5ef386411dcdde1edf4cd255b8d4e8504ef76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Red Wings, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Red Wings | 29c | 6,767$1,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,961.89 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs | 71c | 4,961$3,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.9 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Red Wings | 29c | 3,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Red Wings | 29c | 2,471$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.88 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs | 71c | 1,503$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.92 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Maple Leafs | 71c | 1,500$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 1,131$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.99 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Maple Leafs | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 580.13$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.21 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 563.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.38 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Red Wings | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Maple Leafs | 72c | 498$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.44 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Red Wings | 29c | 462$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.93 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Maple Leafs | 71c | 422$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.38 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 410$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.9 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 394.2$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.32 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Red Wings | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 247.76$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…3161backed Red Wings | 29c | 173.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Red Wings | 27c | 147.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Maple Leafs | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4659…4da9backed Red Wings | 29c | 74.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Red Wings | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Maple Leafs | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Maple Leafs | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Maple Leafs | 73c | 29.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. Maple LeafsRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.