NHL · resolved market
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef70785607c900fd66c8f89e86cc86fe08aec9c444afae35ce87c16601cfcfaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Maple Leafs, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Red Wings | 67c | 2,164$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.17 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…f6cebacked Maple Leafs | 33c | 1,755$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.74 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…9431backed Red Wings | 68c | 682.18$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.39 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Maple Leafs | 32c | 666.09$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.15 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Maple Leafs | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Red Wings | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed Maple Leafs | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…05ffbacked Maple Leafs | 19c | 176.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Red Wings | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Maple Leafs | 32c | 73.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Red Wings | 77c | 56.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Red Wings | 67c | 55.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…2024backed Red Wings | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…1f46backed Red Wings | 71c | 34.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings | 62c | 31.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. Maple LeafsRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.